The Third Wave Is Happening Now

edited June 2021 in General

N.B. Discussion of personal vaccine decisions, the efficacy of vaccines, etc. is OFF TOPIC in this thread. This thread is about the macroscopic situation in relation to the Delta variant.

Here in the UK covid cases are once again rising exponentially and have been for some weeks. Almost all of them are the Delta variant, first identified in India, and they are somewhat concentrated in certain cities and in younger people. Hospitalisations are also rising exponentially, but so far deaths have remained flat. It takes a month or so for a rise in cases to feed through to the fatality statistics .... we have had that first month, just, and so far things are looking good. The next couple of weeks will tell us what this third wave is really going to look like.

The Delta variant is the most infectious major variant seen so far. It's also one of the most serious. It's important to note that the symptom pattern is slightly different, with headache, sore throat and runny nose being more prevalent.

The latest round of lockdown loosening has been postponed by a month, but so far there has been no real discussion about re-tightening. Why not? Because the existing vaccines are working fine.

Over 50% of the adult population have now had both doses ... and yet only 5% of covid hospital admissions are people who have had both doses. In other words, being vaccinated offers very significant protection against becoming seriously ill. Over 80% of the adult population have had one dose, and vaccines are now being offered to everybody over 18. The decision on whether to vaccinate 12-18 year olds has not yet been made. (I presume that trials for under 12s are happening, but I haven't checked.) The vaccine programme is protecting the healthcare system from being overwhelmed, and so there is no need at present to go back into lockdown.

To misquote Churchill, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But, with a rise in cases not so far being accompanied by a rise in deaths, it is perhaps the end of the beginning.

Comments

  • "only 5% of covid hospital admissions are people who have had both doses." This is the best covid related news I've read yet!!!

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