Covid - important news

edited January 2021 in General

The new variant is transmitted much more easily than the original one. Everything you think you know about covid must be reconsidered.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55507012

The Imperial College study suggests transmission of the new variant tripled during England's November lockdown while the previous version was reduced by a third.

Here in the UK we are more or less back to full lockdown. Nonetheless, cases are still rising very rapidly. Our emergency hospitals are called 'Nightingales' (after the nurse) and are ready. It remains to be seen whether they are enough.

The problem is that the new variant has a transmission rate - the famous R number - between 0.4 and 0.7 higher than the original variant. In other words, if the precautions in your area take R from around 3 (the old variant natural rate with no precautions) to 0.9, you have done a great job and the number of infections will be falling. However, with the new variant the same precautions will result in R being around 1.5. Which is pretty rapid transmission.

What does this mean in reality? In means that what we used to think of as pretty fierce lockdown is inadequate to stop the spread of the new variant.

In cuddling terms, this means that whatever precautions you have taken up till now will not be adequate when the new variant reaches you. Unless you have at least 75%(?) of the local population vaccinated. In most of the UK, cuddling is now illegal except with members of your household.

There is now a race on here in the UK, and that race is coming soon to a country near you. Can we get the vaccine out fast enough to beat the faster spread? At the moment it's not clear. Our government has been consistently over-optimistic in its planning and seems set to continue in that vein. Nonetheless, the UK realistically expects to be vaccinating about 1/8 of the whole population per month by mid-January, thanks to the Oxford vaccine (normal fridge temperature) which has been approved in addition to the Pfizer (very cold) one. Vulnerable groups first, obviously. Over a million people have received at least a first dose so far.

The good news is that the new variant is otherwise similar to the old one. It results in much the same symptoms of much the same severity and much the same fatality rate. The vaccine people are saying that they expect that the vaccines will work against the new variant, and if they don't it will not take long at all to create a new vaccine. And the vaccine will be having a statistically significant effect on hospital admissions by Easter.

In the meantime, good luck everybody.

Comments

  • @CuddleDuncan Thank you very much for the information.

  • 🤯 ~ Noooo!

  • Thanks. I did read somewhere that the mRNA based vaccines were supposed to also be effective against the new strain. A problem will be the 25% of the population that doesn’t want to get vaccinated and will continue to spread the virus. The good news is for those of us that can get vaccinated, we will survive.

  • edited January 2021

    Have a wonderful 2021. NO FEAR! "If you are not living on the edge you are taking up too much space."

  • edited January 2021

    I spoke with an anesthesiologist and he said that he was told s that 1 vaccine would only protect for 3 months, and that you would need a second and then annual shots like the flu shot. That was from him, not me.

  • edited January 2021

    We don't know how long protection from the vaccines will last, because the we haven't had time to find out. It seems that having had covid once does not provide complete natural immunity, as there are a number of cases of people having it twice.

    All of the vaccines now approved or about to be are meant to have two doses, although most of the protection comes from the first dose. If vaccine protection ends up looking a bit like natural immunity from having been infected (which is reasonable) then it is more than possible that annual boosters will be required. At present it's too early to say.

    The reason for annual flu shots is not that the protection has waned. It is that the most common strains of flu vary from year to year, and they require different vaccines. There is an entire sub-industry of people who try to figure out what strain will be the most common in the forthcoming winter, since the vaccines have to be ordered in the summer to allow time for manufacture and distribution.

    @Invisible_Touch I put a fair amount of effort, research, time and thought into my original post. I've been mulling it over since about Boxing Day.

    In the last week, 3,927 people in the UK have died with covid. Had the government enacted the much stronger controls on the population requested by the medical professions, including their own medical advisors, that number would have been fewer.

    If the new variant really gets away from us, we are only a matter of weeks away from bodies being piled up in mortuary car parks.

    You have some thinking to do.

  • The vaccine will not stop people being infectious. It just makes the illness less acute if you do happen to get infected.

  • @UKGuy well, yes, but it does reduce how infectious people are. It should also reduce the period during which they are infectious.

    In other words, the probability of a vaccinated person infecting somebody does not drop to zero, but it does fall significantly.

  • edited January 2021

    Have a wonderful 2021

  • Full lockdown just announced for the whole of the UK. Schools shut. Clinically vulnerable people to start shielding again. Will last until at least mid-February. Leader of the Opposition has just been on the telly saying, "Yeah, do what my chief political opponent just said."

    So far, the UK has vaccinated more people than the whole of the EU, but that's still only a million or two.

  • [Deleted User]DrCuddleBug (deleted user)

    @CuddleDuncan what is "shielding" of the clinically vulnerable?

  • People who are clinically vulnerable for some reason (e.g. severely weakened immune systems, people with transplants, or with serious respiratory diseases, etc.) are supposed to 'shield'. That basically means not leaving home for any reason whatsoever.

  • [Deleted User]DrCuddleBug (deleted user)

    Thanks. I understood the clinically vulnerable, but "shielding" is not a term we use here across the pond. Separated by a shared language.

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