@AceCuddlerMike @geoff1000
To clarify, those aren't my questions! Just quoting the page that I linked.
@snuggleme123 To answer your question about why we don’t shut down socially for the flu, but do for covid19, in a nutshell:
See this article for more: https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-pandemic-differs-from-flu-48e81eae-d275-4d33-83fa-4716551c61c0.html
@MrPaul I expect we have lots of Donald Rumsfeld's "unknown unknowns".
Next time you go through the supermarket check-out line, don't forget to say "Thank You" to the cashier. They are putting themselves in danger for a paltry minimum wage and aren't allowed to wear any protective gear for fear of scaring the customers. And don't complain to them if your needed item was not on the shelves. It wasn't their fault. Thank You.
@UKGuy The cashiers at the stores around here are all gloves and masked. No one is scared by that because everyone knows what the dealio is now.
I am less at ease now dealing with someone who is not wearing PPE . I kicked out a driver yesterday from my dialysis clinic and chewed him out for entering the clinic with a patient and not wearing a mask or gloves nor was the patient . I hated to have to do that but safety for the most vulnerable is Paramount right now
@UKGuy We're far away from 1 million deaths? Really? Let's look at that.
Incubation period is around 5 to 10 days. I'm therefore assuming that the lag from preventative measures to the exponential rate of case growth to be around 8 days.
Time for exponential case growth to be reflected in exponential fatality growth in the USA is 16 or 17 days. This is from data where the knee for cases is around March 1, and the knee for fatalities is around March 17.
Add the two together, 8 plus 16, and you get 24 days. The period for exponential growth to increase by a factor of 10 is 8 days. Therefore, you take the 500 fatalities, add three orders of magnitude, and you get 500,000. I have April 17 picked out as the day where we'll be around a million fatalities in the USA. That's 25 days away. With the observed lags, we're there now.
There is a problem with my calculations. Hospital shortages, lack of space, lack of headcount. That will really start running out in early April if we have a surge capacity of 300,000. If we double surge capacity, then it will last an extra 3 days. When you include that then the data goes wonky and April 17 becomes a "no later than" date instead of a prediction for a million casualties in the USA.
Three weeks ago I was predicting a million deaths in the USA alone from this. I was sounding like an insane madman. Now the CDC is predicting 1.5 million just in the USA, and there's no reason to believe that won't be worse. Now I'm looking at it and thinking we'll have between 1 and 4 million fatalities in the USA due to COVID 19. I hope I'm not being overly optimistic.
@cabellye
The statistics seem to predict that many more people already have it, and will die of it ; than have so far been recorded. It's rather like the sinking Titanic ; after a point, that number of passengers were effectively dead.
You should probably add in all the people who will be dying of other things, because the ICU bed they would have had, is taken up by someone else ; or they are too scared of catching Covid 19 while in hospital, or while going to and fro.
I expect the USA will have one of the highest numbers per country in the world ; but others will probably have a higher percentage.
The CDC numbers are based on if we did nothing. Here is an explanation of the numbers—although it still isn’t good:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.amp.html?0p19G=0038
Here is a simulation that will help you understand the benefit of social distancing, our best defense at the moment.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
More resources that spread knowledge can be found in the link below. Please share this link with everyone. Education will be our best hope for improving our survival rate.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/7-best-covid-19-resources/
Here is another :
An account by someone in Italy of what it has been like to live in lockdown, from March 12th until now -- along with some useful data and even some recipes (posted on Board Game Geek):
Our life in lockdown
An AMA ("Ask Me Anything") by Bill Gates from a week ago about epidemics/pandemics (which the Gates Foundation has studied):
I’m Bill Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. AMA about COVID-19
Lucid & Geoff are right. This could be months -- life must go on. & honestly it is unbelievable how this has to happen in order for people to practice common cleanliness. People have a pack mantality where followers will see the paranoid people stocking up for an apocolypse & follow those people to the store to the point where there is nothing left for anyone else. These same people will make the rest of us lose work & put us into a recession. We all must eat & pay rent
At this point I am surprised people aren't building a moat around their houses at the sign of a common cold !!
@cuddlekittycat If we don't stay quarantined, we'll fall right back into the spiked Corona infection pattern again only it will be worse. We need to resist and refuse certain political recommendations to "get back to work" and wait it out a little while longer... or matters will be WORSE. Life must go on, but we must WAIT LONGER.
Physicians are exploring the possibility of letting those over 65 fight the virus naturally and if they become critically ill, just giving them palliative care. This is something they are actually discussing because there are not enough PPE and ventilators. The thinking is that those under 65 have the best chance at an optimal recovery, therefore they should get a ventilator. They are already doing this in Italy so it is not out of the realm of possibility. Who would have thought this could happen here? But that seems to be a recurring question since 2016.
@FunCartel do you think this may have been released to intentionally cull the population? Scary. It just means they would just keep on releasing a virus after every 10 years to do it again. So its like a death sentence for everyone above 65.
The website www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has the latest graphs, showing how China and South Korea have recovered, and Italy has levelled off ; at least some encouraging news.
Wikipedia lists the countries which locked down and when, which gives an idea of how long it takes to have an effect ; looks to me as if the peak death rate is about 10 days later, which makes sense according to the incubation delay.
Governments won't say they are actively letting the older people die, it will be phrased as prioritising those with a better chance of recovery.
We do have to tread a difficult path, because a lockdown is hurtful to a lot of people, most of whom know they are not at high risk of a severe outcome.
One good thing which I hope will come out this, is that the world will be even better prepared for the next pandemic. I expect that lessons from recent ones, mean this one won't be as bad as it could have been.
@geoff1000 Wow. OMG wow.
No one in their right mind believes any of the data coming out of China right now.
Italy locked down March 9th. Deaths are still rising exponentially. Spain locked down March 13th. Ditto. It isn't 10 days. March 9th to now is 16 days, and it still hasn't leveled off.
Viral pneumonia, walking pneumonia, is being considered a mild outcome. At that point it's stay inside because you want to or stay inside because you aren't capable of moving. That's a mild case.
So a million dead just in the USA is "won't be as bad" to you? What do you think, could it have been ten million? Yes, I know, current deaths in the USA is ONLY 1000. Looking at the data gives a full lag time of 24 days. With the current fatality data increasing by an order of magnitude every 8 days, that's 3 orders of magnitude. Multiply 1000 by 1000, what do you get?
It's called physical distancing. do it
@cabellye If you believe the Italy data, it shows new cases and new deaths have been roughly level for the last 6 days or so. Deaths are not "still rising exponentially". Maybe you don't believe South Korea data either.
The pandemic is like a fire on a ship. If you put too little water on the fire, you die of burning ; if you put too much water on it, you die of drowning. Most people in the world don't have enough resources in their home to survive the 3 weeks of total lockdown that would stop the virus ; and if society breaks down, there will be no-one to maintain those resources, or protect the "haves" from the "have nots" who want to take it from them.
So little testing is being done, that most of the confirmed cases are those with severe outcomes, which over-measures that. The point I'm making is that it is the irresponsible younger people who are still "household mingling", and they aren't thinking of the old people they will be passing it on to - or worse, maybe they are.
The transmission rate is high, because the speed of travel means a person could be twice round the world before showing symptoms ; if the fastest journey was a sailing ship, the occupants would have a natural quarantine period before they arrived in USA or Australia for instance. I know it isn't good, but that ability to travel faster, has come with an ability to respond faster to the problem. Lockdowns were published instantly, testing finds some cases quickly.
Every situation could be worse. Many countries had poison gas during WW2, but the experience of WW1 told them not to use it. I'm saying that without the technological progress at fighting viruses, developed in response to previous pandemics ; this many days after the first case existed, we probably wouldn't even be having this conversation.
The next pandemic to affect the world as badly as Covid-19, will need to have an even longer incubation period, and / or a higher fatality rate. Maybe we'll be better prepared for it ; and the experience of this one, will help get agreement for the resource needed to be ready. Until recently, few people knew the meaning of the word "tsunami" but the warning systems now in place, are the world's memorial to those who lost their lives before we took such events seriously.
It may be too early to say, but in the UK, on Wednesday 25th compared to Tuesday 24th : new cases increased by only about 2 % and new deaths halved. The lockdown only started on Monday night.
The trick is to not be complacent ; many medicines say to keep taking the recommended course of treatment, even after the symptoms have stopped.
Three weeks of total lockdown won't stop this. Six weeks might. Yes, Italy's data show new deaths to be level over the past few days. USA's data trend is worse than Italy's.
In the UK, new cases were still 18% of the total cases before the 25th. In the USA, new cases were 25% of the total cases before the 25th. That's still exponential growth.
@geoff1000 Stop embarrassing yourself. I'm done with you.
@cabellye Are you looking at different graphs ?
All countries are increasing their number of cases, and most are increasing their number of deaths. Exponential growth is where the daily rate is increasing, in proportion to the number ; but for several countries, the rate of increase is becoming at least constant.
I think a good analogy is the tide coming in. On the turn, it is very slow, then it comes in faster and faster. At mid-tide it is coming in the fastest. After mid-tide, it is still coming in, but at a decreasing rate, making it possible to estimate how high it will get.
A pandemic is like a Ponzi Scheme, the limited number of people, means the increase can't go on forever. Those who catch it and recover ( whether they know it or not ) dilutes the population of transmitters ; "social distancing" is only needed, from those who can still catch it.
Longer lockdown is certainly more effective, but people don't have six weeks of food in their homes, so that isn't practical. There isn't even six weeks of food in warehouses, that could be delivered to shops ; so key workers aren't just shop assistants, truck drivers and warehouse staff.
Who will look after all those who need, and will need, medical care to reduce the severity of their outcome ? Should we also sacrifice all those who in the six weeks, would need medical help for unrelated illnesses ?
It may take more deaths in each country, to convince everyone there to follow the lockdown rules as best as they can ; but they are also more likely to do that, if they can see an end date.
I think the evidence from some countries, is that the tide can be turned ; and I also think that some people would like a little optimism. I find that in the data.
I'm expecting in the next six months to lose people I know, but freaking out about that, won't help anyone.
@geoff1000 Just stop talking. I'm sure you've convinced many people that you are intelligent, or that you have a clue. I'm sure people would like to find optimism. There is no optimism in the data. People will understand that when when the hospitals are covered in tents. Then people will really be freaking out, and all you'll be left doing is saying "But there was optimism..."
@geoff1000 I get what your are trying to say. There is absolutely nothing wrong with finding the silver lining and some optimism while remaining vigilant and self-aware. I will take that over hysteria any day. Hysteria clouds your judgement.
@FunCartel 👍
@cabellye The USA now has the highest number of cases per country in the world, and I'm sure your focus is on that ; but the published data shows that some countries no longer have exponential growth of cases and deaths, and others have managed to keep their growth low.
Unlike many former pandemics, the world now has the capability to find a vaccine ( if not a cure ) ; and a test to identify those who have "self-cured" so they can get the world working again. I think the genome of the virus has been read, an impossible task just a few years ago.
We will lose many people before then, but our technology will eventually pull the curve down faster. The measures we have in place can't save everyone who is at risk, but they can blunt the demand on our healthcare systems, and buy us time until a countermeasure is available.
A lockdown needs to be acceptable to those being asked to do it ; else they won't comply, and heavy-handed enforcement would lead to other problems.
This looks hopeful, using drug-sniffing dogs to detect people who are infected : https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-52057543