Just hit 100k cases in the USA. We'll be at 200k cases early next week, and 300k cases by the end of next week. It's heating up! One million cases in the USA around mid April. Morgues are already overflowing in New York. Coming soon, to a state near you.
An animated bar graph of the number of confirmed cases in different countries from February 18th to March 27th.
From this BBC page, which has some other useful graphs too.
@cabellye No. In 8 days that will be 1 million cases. It is at an exponential curve not linear. Also in 8 days there will be a total of 10,000 deaths
@alphares Yes, three to four days to hit 200k, so early next week. Two to three days after that to hit 300k. Then probably 3 days to hit 1 million.
BTW, the lag between the fatality exponential curve and the cases exponential curve is 16 days. When the case curve finally levels out, the fatality curve will be 16 days away, or 100x.
@alphares @cabellye It is morning in the UK, and the air temperature is rising at about 1 degree per hour. That predicts it will rise by 24 degrees each day, and hence 168 degrees each week. Not so.
The data from China and South Korea, or if you don't trust that, from Italy and Spain ; shows that the curve doesn't have to rise forever. Moreover, if the China and South Korea curves had actually continued, the entire population of those countries would have been lost by now.
I don't trust the "cases" data, because the low rate of testing means the true number is much higher ; so improvements in testing, increase the numbers, even if the true new cases were coming down. I only look at the fatalities.
I don't know why you both have this fatalistic attitude, that the outcome you extrapolate is inevitable. Scientists are working round the clock on methods to : support those who have it, detect the carriers, and identify the "no longer infectious". We just have to buy them time.
When one is running, one often gets a "second wind", when it seems to get easier ; this is the body's delayed response to the increased demand, catching up. National pandemic responses are like that ; with the situation having to become very bad, before the citizens will tolerate the "wartime" infringements on their freedoms and lifestyles.
We have to contend with the many other ways that kill high numbers of our citizens each day ; and being better prepared for a pandemic, means less resource on them. The key is to have a quick and flexible response.
Conversely and perversely, most people who are dying, are way over the life expectancy of say 500 years ago. A similar coronavirus pandemic in the Middle Ages, would go unnoticed. Rather like senile dementia, which only affects those who have outlived other diseases.
The China figures, and particularly their skew towards male fatality ; are being linked to the higher incidence of smoking. I can't help thinking that the bans on indoor smoking, different around the world over the last few years, leading many to quit or not start or not expose others to second-hand smoke ; means that a lot of cases, are much milder ( including non-fatal ) than they otherwise would have been.
No government justified those bans, by warning of a respiratory pandemic ; but perhaps we should thank them for one impact on our freedom, which was a useful preparation.
Things are unfortunately worse than we would like them to be.
https://medium.com/@CynicalXennial/unmasking-the-truth-cdc-and-hospital-administrators-are-endangering-us-all-b601012f81be
@geoff1000 its now almost impossible to contain it. If you expect within 2020 everything will be back to normal like it was in 2019 then you will just be disappointed. Look forward to 2021 summer . There will be a 2nd wave of this coming on December. 100k infected in US is not a joke. And that is only for those who have been tested. There are at least a million now walking around in the US. And even so, those who get diagnosed are not into quarantine but are still walking around. More than half of US population will get this at some point within 2020.
@alphares I don't know what qualifies you to forecast that : "There will be a 2nd wave of this coming on December" "More than half of US population will get this at some point within 2020."
Even if that infection rate were true, the mortality rate for those : under 10 is 0 %, and 10 to 40 is 0.2% ; and that figure is a significant overestimate, because, as you say, so few people are being tested, that it is mostly just a confirmation. The key to saving lives, is keeping the vulnerable protected from transmission ; and every human-human contact, even between children, can be a link in a long chain.
If I had to guess, I'd say the world will lose low-digit millions ; about 1 in 1000 of us. Compare that to the Black Death, which killed tens of millions ; that was about 20 % of the world's population at the time.
The total will be probably be less than were lost in each of the World Wars. The difference here, is that the entire human race is on the same side ; and the virus is not attacking also the infrastructure which is being used to fight it.
The Second World War was shortened by technology : radar, breaking Enigma, the atomic bomb. The actions each of us take to reduce transmission, slow the spread ; so that when those technological breakthroughs occur, we haven't lost as many as we would, if we just let it spread.
I'm not sure why you seem to relish saying how bad you think things are, or what purpose you think it serves to make people more frightened. A problem like this is solved by staying calm, and remaining focused.
Some people exist off of fear without context or awareness of mitigating factors. No sense trying to reason with them. Those who live in persistent fear and anxiety will catch it first anyway because their fear and anxiety wrecks their immune system.
And just because one refuses to live in fear does not mean they are not following guidelines...it means they have faith in our scientists, technology and our fellow man to find solutions in the time of crisis.
(MOD) Comment removed - personal attack [SoulcuddlerZ]
@cabellye Why not send that kind of insult about someone to your intended recipient via pm? That was unnecessary.
Here is some useful advice from the BBC Website :
"People should prepare to fight coronavirus like they would prepare for surgery by staying fit and healthy, say medics. Experts at the Centre for Perioperative Care (CPOC) say : 1. Stop smoking 2. Take exercise unless you are unwell with the virus: ideally a brisk walk, cycle or jog. Strengthening and balance exercises are also recommended. Those aged over 70 - considered to be at increased risk of severe illness from the virus - are allowed outside, unless they have been otherwise advised, and should keep two metres from others and not touch anything 3. Maintain a good diet, including trying smaller portion sizes and planning ahead for meals 4. Maintain your mental health, including getting a good night's sleep 5. Have alcohol-free days
In the weeks to come, many of us will be "called up" to fight the virus in our own body. We should use that time wisely.
@cabellye @alphares I don't follow the US government announcements, so I'm not misled by them. I look at the world data, and see some countries getting over the worst.
If you have a problem with the way the US government is behaving, you should take it up with them.
I've spent the last 5 days, in a room smaller than a prison cell, so I'm doing my bit to not be part of a transmission chain.
@cabellye You can give your opinion and cite sources without the personal attacks. Your posts are now full of "he" and "him". You aren't helping anyone with that.
@cabellye Are you planning to stay in your home until the end of the year ? If not, why not ?
@AceCuddlerMike Exactly. Fear is no excuse to attack someone that is not inside your echo chamber.
Guys, have fun with that. I haven't seen data like this in years, not since I looked at bacterial growth in a petri dish. The exponential curves are pure, pristine, glorious in their beauty. There is just enough wiggle to make them real. The stunning simplicity found in their symmetry is amazing, incredible, positively breathtaking in this little time where mathematics and reality meet in an incredible growth curve. It is truly wondrous to see.
Looking at this data, it's like gazing into the clear pool of a mountain lake, undisturbed by humans, crystal clear. It seems to be only 10 ft deep, so perfect, and yet it's so much deeper because of light refraction. But it's so clear, so seductive to try to reach the bottom. This data is the same, it's like looking three weeks into the future. I see it, I can feel it already. It's already here for me. Then the context of these statistics falls upon me, to my horror.
You see nothing, but you will. Oh, you will see so much more than you imagined. They're seeing it in New York now, and you're thinking it can't possibly happen to you. But it will. Oh lordy lordy, it really will.
im going to enjoy the Florida sun on a tennis court. Enjoy your day peeps!
@geoff1000 "I look at the world data, and see some countries getting over the worst. " The some countries you mentioning here had quick action and did forced quarantine, testing, and contact tracing in January when the confirmed cases in their country was still in 2 digits or less. How do you do that with 120,000 infected? Unfortunately, it is now impossible. By April 5, Sunday, the total number of confirmed cases in the US will be at 1 million, and sadly 10,000 deaths.
@alphares April 1st this all goes away
@alphares What happened to your million fatalities in the US from a couple of weeks ago? Now only 10,000? You do have a bit of optimist in you!
@FunCartel Million fatalities in the US is April 17th. Alphares is off in his prediction, 10,000 fatalities is likely to be April 2nd, not April 5th. April 5th should be 20,000.
There will not be a million. I will say 30,000 is realistic. But the tech giants and industrial giants are now mobilizing. You watch, that will make a difference sooner than later. Until then, stay inside and relax.
The news I watch is FranceTV, a 24 hour news channel out of Paris. The percentages are slowly changing for the better in Spain and Italy. Italy has the oldest population in Europe and the largest concentrations are in the North. There are stories behind the numbers.
@FunCartel The lag between cases and fatalities is 16 days. That means that once the number of cases starts dropping, it takes more than 2 weeks for the number of fatalities to drops. The lag between action and cases is likely 5 to 10 days. Any action to be taken to keep us from hitting a million casualties in the USA is already too late.
You have wishful thinking. I have hard data. Shall I remind you in two weeks that you said that 30,000 fatalities in the USA is realistic, when we'll have 100k? Shall I remind you of that again in three weeks? I'm hoping that a million is realistic. My fear is that it is not, that it's far too low.
@FunCartel Spain and Italy are taking action, and have been taking action for weeks now. The USA is on a much worse path than either Spain or Italy. All the other countries will have this thing beat down, and the USA will still be gripped by it, dying by the thousands each day.
@FunCartel that million fatality will happen but not in the month of April. That will be somewhere in May. I said more than a million before but I did not give an exact timeline. But it will happen.
Watching these comments I had to chime in. (I have a feeling I’ll regret it before too long) but.. arguing over the projected/ predicted number of fatalities In the USA is really ludacris to me. My day job is one that really opens your eyes to the whole story behind this .. well the sad stories behind the scenes. This virus doesn’t discriminate - and soon everyone will know someone who has it. Healthcare workers have literally been worked to death with an emotional fatigue that is almost unbearable. Maybe, just maybe we should spend less time arguing and more time doing something positive! Remember to stay home if at all possible; because we will ONLY get this under control if everyone contributes. ✌️
The hard data you both quote are projections. Projections are not hard data. You both seem to think that if someone can mine optimism from the numbers through statistical data and aren’t in lockstep panic that they will kill people. That is a major supposition. You are supposing that everyone is stupid and will suddenly come outside to embrace each other just because someone sees some promising developments. That is another supposition and very arrogant thinking.
Moreover, Spain and Italy were in the same boat as the US a few weeks ago. Their timeline is just ahead of ours. But they complained about the same thing—not enough PPE, ventilators, etc. They are catching up some and the numbers are beginning to bear that out. That is the optimism.